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Cattle Prices Higher than Expected Relative to Beef Production

@mbacowboy – This has been an ongoing phenomenon in 2022. Cattle prices have been substantially higher than expected based on total beef production. This graph shows the historical cash cattle prices for each week in April-May relative to a rolling 6-week average of per capita production., Data for recent weeks (in orange) show that 2022 has been a clear outlier.

Expected Price of 11/15/2022 Feeder Steers (3/31/22)

Tables show expected future price forecasts for feeder steers sold on Noveber 15th 2022 at seven different locations. Forecasts for 475, 525, 575, 625 and 675 pound steers displayed in separate tables. Forecasts are based on current (as of 3/31/2022) December corn prices (value displayed below tables) Forecasts are shown for a range of October 2022 feeder cattle contract prices ($170-206) These tables were created using the BeefBasis Regional Price Comparison tool.

Expected Price of 10/15/2022 Feeder Steers (3/28/22)

Tables show expected future price forecasts for feeder steers sold on October 15th 2022 at seven different locations. Forecasts for 500, 550, 600, and 650 pound steers displayed in separate tables. Forecasts are based on current (as of 3/28/2022) December corn prices (value displayed below tables) Forecasts are shown for a range of October 2022 feeder cattle contract prices ($170-206) These tables were created using the BeefBasis Regional Price Comparison tool.

February LC Contract (1/5/22)

@mbacowboy – January 5, 2022 This is an interesting monthly chart of February Live Cattle, comparing the breakout from the last cattle cycle to the recent breakout in this cattle cycle. The trendlines are identical. If the mirror pattern continues, Feb could trade sideways for several more months.

March Feeder Cattle (1/4/21)

@mbacowboy – January 4, 2022 A break in August live cattle combined with higher corn prices rocked March feeder cattle today. We knew a break was coming, and I doubt we put in the high for the year yesterday. The contract could still easily break another $4 before rallying.

March Feeder Cattle

@mbacowboy – December 3, 2021 March Feeder cattle have followed similar resistance slopes on rallies, and two different support slopes on corrections. Following these trendlines, March could see $170 next week if this was a short term correction, or $160-$165 if this correction continues.