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January 31, 2023 2:23 pm Published by BeefBasis

A couple of highlights of the USDA’s semi-annual survey report measuring U.S. cattle inventories as of January 1, 2023. The top-line category – “All Cattle and Calves” – declined by 3.04% relative to the (revised) 2022 inventory to 89.27 million head. This was a smaller decline than predicted by many industry experts. However, the last time this category declined by a greater percentage was 1987 (3.09%) The inventory of “Beef Cows” in the U.S. declined by 3.55% from the (revised) 2022 inventory level. The resulting 2023 Beef Cow inventory of 28.92m head is the lowest since 1962 (see chart). Links... View Article

January 30, 2023 2:09 pm Published by BeefBasis

The cattle industry is awaiting the release of USDA’s cattle inventory report in the afternoon on January 31st, 2023. The report will give a clearer picture of the overall U.S. beef cattle herd numbers in the wake of the significant cow and heifer liquidation that has been occurring for the past several months. Industry experts have forecast a reduction in “all cattle and calves” inventory ranging from 3.5% to as 5% below 2022. This chart shows historical January 1 estimates for “All Cattle and Calves” since 1867 along with the percentage year-to-year change in blue (measured on right axis). The... View Article

January 18, 2023 11:14 am Published by BeefBasis

American Farm Bureau, Market Intel – 1/10/2023 2023 Cattle Market Outlook <https://www.fb.org/market-intel/2023-cattle-market-outlook> “2022 was filled with mountains for U.S. cattle producers to climb. From high feed costs to the third consecutive year of drought, there was no shortage of complex obstacles, many with effects that will carry through well beyond 2023. This Market Intel is a deep dive into the 2023 cattle outlook, and what producers can do to position themselves for what lies ahead.”

11:02 am Published by BeefBasis

1/12/2023 – Elliott Dennis, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, appearing in BEEF Magazine Heifers on feed indicate a long-term liquidation is still occurring Prepare for the USDA-NASS cattle inventory report at the end of January <https://www.beefmagazine.com/beef/heifers-feed-indicate-long-term-liquidation-still-occurring> … “Beef cow herd liquidation occurred in a significant way in 2022 due to a combination of strong lean beef demand, higher cull cow prices, and forage issues due to drought. Fewer cows results in fewer feeder cattle, tightening supplies for fed cattle, and ultimately lower beef production in 2023. The USDA-NASS Cattle Inventory report is released at the end of this January and analysts’ estimates... View Article

August 1, 2022 3:49 pm Published by BeefBasis

8/1/2022 – ShayLe Stewart, DTN Livestock Analyst, Progressive Farmer DTN Sort and Cull: What a Live Cattle Market With Open Interest at a 6-Year Low Means <https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2022/08/01/live-cattle-market-open-interest-6> … “This highlights the fact that traders aren’t comfortable with where the market currently resides. Brett Crosby, owner of Custom Ag Solutions, said, “The fact that open interest sits at a six-year low means that there’s too much uncertainty on both the upside and downside to attract traders. It also indicates the price is too low for commercials to hedge and too high to attract spec buyers.”

July 26, 2022 1:10 pm Published by BeefBasis

Brett Crosby – @mbacowboy – July 25, 2022 Historically, live cattle prices were highly correlated. Starting in 2015, though, the correlation seemed to disappear. Live cattle price correlation between the composite steer and heifer cutout dropped from 0.9872 during the period 2003-2016 to 0.2372 during the 2017-2019 period. Looking at the relationship differently reveals that boxed beef prices still matter. During 2003-2015, live cattle prices were 60%-68% of the cutout price until the weekly kill exceeded roughly 570k. At this point, packers were nearing capacity, and paid a smaller percentage. During the period between 2016-2019, and add 2022, live cattle... View Article

July 25, 2022 1:37 pm Published by BeefBasis

July Cattle On Feed Report Released July 22, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up Slightly Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on July 1, 2022. The inventory was slightly above July 1, 2021. The inventory included 6.90 million steers and steer calves, down 1 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 61 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.45 million head, up 3... View Article

June 24, 2022 1:17 pm Published by BeefBasis

June 2022 Cattle on Feed Report Released June 24, 2022, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service  (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of  Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for  feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on  June 1, 2022. The inventory was 1 percent above June 1, 2021. This is the  highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.87 million head, 2 percent below  2021. Net... View Article

June 23, 2022 2:19 pm Published by BeefBasis

“Sell or keep” decisions at various points along the value chain require cattle producers to understand both the Cost of Gain (COG) and Value of Gain (VOG). A recent Angus Beef Bulletin article talks about factors to consider and tools that are available to help determine whether to retain or sell weaned calves: ————————————————— Figuring Cost and Value of Gain for Retained Calves There are tools available to help you make the best financial decision for your operation. by Elliott Dennis, University of Nebraska Angus Beef Bulletin (June 7, 2022, Vol. 15: No.6) <https://www.angusbeefbulletin.com/extra/2022/06jun22/0622mg_CostVOG.html> ————————————————— In the article, Dr. Dennis... View Article

June 14, 2022 8:56 am Published by BeefBasis

Article Published June 13, 2022 – Cow-Calf Corner (OSU Extension) Beef Cow Slaughter Continues Unabated by Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Through the end of May, beef cow slaughter for the year-to-date is 15 percent higher year over year. With nearly half the year over, it is very likely that the annual beef cow slaughter total will be up by double-digits year over year. While some drought reduction regionally has improved pasture conditions (Oklahoma is a good example), range and pasture conditions nationally are still at the worst level ever for this time of year. In other... View Article

June 9, 2022 3:29 pm Published by BeefBasis

Published June 6, 2022 – Cattle Market Notes Weekly Beef Cow Slaughter Remains Elevated by Josh Maples, Mississippi State University A few months ago, Kenny wrote about beef cow slaughter outpacing 2021 levels. He discussed how drought and cull cow prices, among other factors, were contributing to high beef cow slaughter totals in 2022. I want to follow up on his article with the most recent data and also discuss some of the regional breakdowns of cow slaughter.  … Chart from article: <https://us15.campaign-archive.com/?u=d27b0f8ca2d30ab88ad971a94&id=4e1e85f0ed> Chart Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, LMIC

June 7, 2022 2:52 pm Published by BeefBasis

@mbacowboy 6/7/2022 – We’ve slaughtered more steers and heifers, and more cattle total in the first 5 months of this year than any year in the last 10. Boxed beef was down $20 from last year for the period. This begs the question: Why have live cattle traded $20 higher than last year for the period?

2:50 pm Published by BeefBasis

@mbacowboy 6/4/2022 – Beef cow liquidation is huge. Proportional to total slaughter, the January herd inventory, and in total, the Jan-May beef cow slaughter exceeded each of the last 15 years. Next year’s herd is pretty much made, which means we could see 1.0 – 1.8 million fewer beef cows in the January 2023 Inventory.

June 1, 2022 10:23 am Published by BeefBasis

American Farm Bureau, Market Intel – March 24, 2022 In the most recent Market Intel, American Farm Bureau economists describe the current state of the cattle market complex including supply (inventories and cattle on feed reports), demand (imports and exports), and production costs (feed and other): Cattle Supply and Demand Issues for the 2022 Marketing Year

9:59 am Published by BeefBasis

@mbacowboy – This has been an ongoing phenomenon in 2022. Cattle prices have been substantially higher than expected based on total beef production. This graph shows the historical cash cattle prices for each week in April-May relative to a rolling 6-week average of per capita production., Data for recent weeks (in orange) show that 2022 has been a clear outlier.

March 31, 2022 8:02 am Published by BeefBasis

Tables show expected future price forecasts for feeder steers sold on Noveber 15th 2022 at seven different locations. Forecasts for 475, 525, 575, 625 and 675 pound steers displayed in separate tables. Forecasts are based on current (as of 3/31/2022) December corn prices (value displayed below tables) Forecasts are shown for a range of October 2022 feeder cattle contract prices ($170-206) These tables were created using the BeefBasis Regional Price Comparison tool.

March 28, 2022 12:51 pm Published by BeefBasis

Tables show expected future price forecasts for feeder steers sold on October 15th 2022 at seven different locations. Forecasts for 500, 550, 600, and 650 pound steers displayed in separate tables. Forecasts are based on current (as of 3/28/2022) December corn prices (value displayed below tables) Forecasts are shown for a range of October 2022 feeder cattle contract prices ($170-206) These tables were created using the BeefBasis Regional Price Comparison tool.

March 21, 2022 10:40 pm Published by BeefBasis

@mbacowboy – January 5, 2022 This is an interesting monthly chart of February Live Cattle, comparing the breakout from the last cattle cycle to the recent breakout in this cattle cycle. The trendlines are identical. If the mirror pattern continues, Feb could trade sideways for several more months.

10:38 pm Published by BeefBasis

@mbacowboy – January 4, 2022 A break in August live cattle combined with higher corn prices rocked March feeder cattle today. We knew a break was coming, and I doubt we put in the high for the year yesterday. The contract could still easily break another $4 before rallying.

10:33 pm Published by BeefBasis

@mbacowboy – December 3, 2021 March Feeder cattle have followed similar resistance slopes on rallies, and two different support slopes on corrections. Following these trendlines, March could see $170 next week if this was a short term correction, or $160-$165 if this correction continues.