Stocker / Background
Stocker / Background Tools
For a selected auction location and planned sales date, the tool provides the predicted basis and expected cash price, including confidence intervals. The tool also presents a pricing matrix to show the impacts of changes in the values of relevant corn and feeder cattle futures contracts.
The Stocker VOG tool uses BeefBasis analytics to forecast current and future local cash prices ($ per cwt) and values ($ per head) for a steer or heifer. First, select a beginning date and initial weight for the animal and then choose a projected rate of daily gain (ADG) and desired sale location for the price projections. Based on these inputs, the Stocker VOG tool calculates a projected local cash price for the animal at the beginning date and 6 dates in the future.
The future weight is calculated at each 30-day interval using the user-selected daily gain. (For example, a 500 pound animal with a daily gain of 2.0 would be projected to weigh 560 lbs. after 30 days, 620 after 60 days, etc.). Estimates of future prices and values incorporate information from deferred futures contracts and the future weight of the animal.
Each row of the table represents a 30-day period. The tool calculates and displays the total increase in value of the animal over the 30-day period (VOG Per Period) and the increase in value per pound gained by the animal (VOG Per CWT is equal to Total VOG divided by pounds gained). The muscling score, and frame score used in the calculations are the most common muscling and frame score for the auction yard you selected. It is also assumed that the lot contains 10 head.
The Stocker VOG tools allows the user to analyze and compare the value created by adding additional weight to cattle and marketing them at a future date. In combination with information about the cost of gain (COG), this information can help a producer decide whether and for how long it may be profitable to retain and feed their cattle.
This tool allows you to analyze the value of additional pounds realized at the time your cattle are sold. Set your expected date of sale and expected selling date. Choose the size of weight increments to use in your analysis. See how much additional value you should expect to receive for each increment of additional out (sale) weight beyond your expected selling weight.
For select states and auction locations, provide your lot details and expected buy and sell dates to obtain expected sales prices and corresponding value of gain projections across a range of nearby sales dates.
Provide detailed inputs and explore opportunities to profit from alternate marketing dates and weights.